Global power seems to be shifting towards the
East. It seems to be that the future power will fall in the hands of eastern
nations, namely, those involved in APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) and
BRICS (Brazil Russia India China South Africa). Earlier this year, China warned
India that an economic partnership with the US would be a “zero sum trap”,
because the Chinese seem to believe that the US is singling out, even
pressuring, India to become an ally in order to slow China’s rise. Since this,
China and India have reached a common ground in the East. In return for India’s
support, China endorsed India’s push to join APEC. Now India is officially a
member. APEC has contributed to the progressive reduction of tariffs and other
barriers to trade in the Asian Pacific region over time, leading to the
expansion of economic growth and international trade in the region. This seems
to be a foreteller of an expansion of overall power in the region, which means
a decrease in the US’ relative power internationally.
Is this
true? If trends continue to follow a pattern, it could be determined that the
US could be subject to losing some power. Moreover, the US is quite disturbed
by the formation of BRICS and the 2014 trade deal made between Putin and India,
and they don’t want India to be pulled into the Chinese-Russian alliance. India
is already a part of the BRICS alliance. How significant is BRICS in terms of a
threat to the US place on the world scene? Indeed, BRICS is very significant.
The populations and the land mass of BRIC areas is enormous, and certainly
China has taken over the lead of economic development. India has also had a
development in skills, so this does have a potential in abandoning the use of
the dollar, of leaving the western financial mechanisms, and this is a direct
threat to the exchange of the US dollar. So, the threat becomes that there will
be a trade relationship formed that undermines the ability of the US to control
all the outcomes. Currently the US has a large amount of control, so it sees
BRICS as a hindrance to control outcome. Therefore, the US will likely do what
it can to break BRICS up, and reasonably so, from a Realist’s perspective,
because the BRICS countries make up over a quarter of the world’s GDP, so they
pose a threat to the US in terms of rising hegemony.
BRICS creates its own system of trade and
finance for helping developing nations in which it doesn’t have to be reliant
on the US. Likewise, the Chinese have been working deals with other countries
in exchange for oil to cut the dollar out, strongly in South America and
Africa. The basis of American power is the dollar as world reserve currency,
because it means the US can pay its bills by printing money, so it therefore
eliminates any financial constraint on the US. China is purposely and
consciously trying to create a trade system in which the role of the dollar
disappears, because that means the demand for the dollar falls, and as the
demand of the dollar falls, the value of the currency falls, and that helps
accelerate the loss of role of world reserve currency. The Chinese are doing this
as a response to a threat they deem to arise from the US hegemony, and in doing so, they might be on their way to
replace the US as the main great power.
https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/trade-organizations/asia-pacific-economic-cooperation-apec
http://www.russia-direct.org/debates/brics-and-west-partners-or-rivals
http://www.russia-direct.org/debates/brics-and-west-partners-or-rivals
Elana, I think it is important to also consider the influence the US has with the EU, and all the benefits that relationship brings. If it truly comes down to an East vs. West economic battle, both powers are reliant on the other. I still do believe that even if the Chinese become more powerful economically, they are still very far away from being the global military power which is crucial. The Chinese economy has also been suffering recently, but I am sure that is temporary. While the BRICS might form a quarter of the worlds GDP, the EU and US take the top two spots and form an enormous economic power that cannot be simply taken over.
ReplyDeleteIt is true that there is benefits that arise from the US and EU relationship, namely, the influence that the US has upon the EU, but just because the powers are mutually reliant and the economy is globalized, does not remove the possibility of a BRICS or eastern takeover. You have to acknowledge the fact that a military power is largely interlaced with economic power, and because of China's economic gains, they have the means to develop a powerful military, and therefore, have the potential to attempt to takeover the west.
DeleteI agree with the points that Frank makes in his argument. I would also like to point out that the rise in economic strength in these areas still relies greatly on the strength of the U.S. and EU economies. These two take up such a huge portion of the World's economy that there is no way and Eastern economic power could shut them out completely. Trade and trade agreements would continue to be a very important and necessary part of the world economy and as a result I do not think a negative connotation necessarily needs to be put on the potential for a rising east.
ReplyDeleteI understand your arguments and want to clarify that in no way am I saying that an eastern takeover of the west is inevitable. I am simply acknowledging that it is possible. It is true that the rise in economic strength in the east still greatly depends on the western economy. Nonetheless, the amount of progress that the east has already made in the last few years makes them substantially stable, arguably financially stable enough to become independent. I think that the US and EU should be cautious and try to avoid any conflicts that would provoke such a takeover.
DeleteElana,
ReplyDeleteThis is an interesting analysis of the BRICS' strategy for reducing the influence of the US. How do you think the US might respond to these rising threats? Will it work with its allies in Europe to form a perhaps more powerful economic coalition?
I am not quite sure how the US will respond to the threats, but perhaps they will increase diplomatic relations with these BRIC / other eastern countries in order to maintain ties with them, which, from a liberalist standpoint, could be effective through cooperation. Also, as you mentioned, it could definitely be a possibility that the US will work with its European allies to strengthen the economic coalition. I wonder, though, if the US attempted to strengthen the western economic coalition, if this would provoke anger from the east, and actually be detrimental rather than solving the solution.
Delete