Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Syrian Intervention (Post #3)

Over the past two years, the United States has considered an intervention in Syria to stop the atrocities committed by the Syrian government, the Assad Regime, against its own people. During this war, somewhere between 250,000 and 340,000 people have been killed as a result of the fighting by, conventional weapons, chemical weapons, torture, and other examples of violence. As the debate continues to be had in Washington, more and more people are dying in this civil war, and now Russia is involving itself on the side of the Assad Regime, which is sure to only elevate the number of casualties. I argue that the United States should involve itself in the war to end the violence, and probably should have already. The most important reason for intervention being the fact that the huge number of casualties as a result of the war, needs to end.

This is something that I believe would be easily accomplished, as American military is far superior to that of the Syrians. Not only that, but the rebel forces would be sure to accept the help of the American forces if it meant that they could finally end the war. One major counter argument to this is the intervention of the Russian forces on the side of the Assad Regime. However, I do not think that the Russians would continue to support the current Syrian government after an American intervention for two reasons. The first reason being that the vast network of international allies that the United States has compared to the small number Russia has, as mentioned in the article on Russian weakness in the Syrian intervention, would prevent them from opposing the United States. Additionally, the Russians would no longer see the battle as one worth fighting, as the loss on the Bargaining Theory of War scale that would come from fighting the United States would not be outweighed by the benefits.

Furthermore, I think the history of the United States makes it sympathetic to the Syrian rebels cause, as the events taking place in Syria are not totally dissimilar to events in our own American History. Civil war, as well as fighting against an oppressive government, are both concepts that should be relatable to the American people as a result of our Civil and Revolutionary Wars respectively. For this reason, I believe the American people could be rallied to the aide of the Syrians because of a feeling of similarity between their histories. Not only would the connection help to bolster support, but it would also give more credibility to the intervention through a sense of legitimacy. This credibility be given to the rebels cause as a result of the similarities with the American Revolutionary War that American definitely considers a legitimate cause.


Finally, despite the relative lack of success that American interventions have had in the past, because this war has a definite faction, the Syrian Rebels, to support, its success would be much more likely. This success can be seen as possible because if the U.S. is able to when the war, which seems very likely, they will have a definite faction to turn the rule of Syria over to, making the region much more stable. The United States also receives two major benefits; first, American intervention and American military power are given more legitimacy through their successful actions. Additionally, however, the United States would gain another ally in an area where allies a hard to come by and vital to U.S. interest.

8 comments:

  1. I agree that the U.S. should take measures to reduce casualties in Syria, but I see problems with the evidence you used to support this. The Bargaining Theory of War would indeed state that Russia would rather lose control of Syria than fight the United States. But can't the same be said for the US? The US would not risk a war with Russia to control Syria. Also, there is not one force called the "Syrian Rebels". That is an umbrella term to describe multiple factions. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of the Kurds and ISIS. Some of these groups commit atrocities similar to those of Assad. It is safe to say the US has no group to back in the region. In order to fix the problem, I believe we need a combination of diplomacy with Russia, humanitarian aid, cooperation with the UN, and secret small scale military units on the ground.

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  2. I agree with both Jake, and Will in the idea that the U.S should help reduce the casualties in Syria, however I dont believe that the US is sufficient enough to help them out. Yes we have the motive, and the history that surrounds us will help us with sympathizing with Syria, but we do not have the allies that could help us help the Syrians. I agree with you Will when you sat that if we involve ourselves in the war we would essentially gain an ally who is hard to come by.

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  4. Rather than a military intervention, I would argue the opposite: that cooperating with Assad is the best way to address the deteriorating situation in Syria and combating the Islamic State. I addressed this in a comment on a previous blog post, but I think that the 'stability at all costs' approach might be our best option. While the war began as an uprising against the Assad regime, the threat of Islamic State is now being seen as the greater threat. Russia is now trying to convince the West that it needs to work with Syria in the fight against ISIL. The West’s desire to combat the jihadist group may force it to work with Assad, and restoring peace to the country would also relieve the migrant crisis as citizens could return home. With a war in Syria being unwinnable, many experts are now starting to realize that keeping some form of the Assad regime operating could be the best option to return stability to the country. The best outcome would be a new regime where Assad is not the ruler at an agreed time in the future, and where some opposition elements are incorporated in the government and military. But the regime needs to stay, because without the regime as part of some kind of a future provisional or transitional government, there is going to be a power vacuum that simply results in ISIL filling that vacuum and taking over the country

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  5. I agree that the US should intervene in Syria to fight the Asaad regime and help the Syrian rebels. However, as Jake acknowledged, the "Syrian rebels" is an overarching term that relates to a plethora of different factions that are intertwined in the Syrian civil war. It would be a humanitarian, moral effort of the US to attempt to help the Syrian rebels, but it's much easier said than done. ISIS is also present in Syria, so in theory any involvement the US makes in Syria is subject to retaliation by ISIS groups, and this makes everything more complicated.

    Obama is in a difficult position, because he doesn't have many options other than escalating intervention in Syria (and possibly inciting the ire of ISIS) or mitigating the US opposition to the Asaad regime in order to work at attempts of diplomacy.

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  6. I think that there are three major counter arguments to my post, the Russian influence on the conflict, the threat of ISIS in conjunction with a lack of a singular counter faction, and the possibility of future instability.

    In regards to the Russian forces, I do not see any way they could argue for further involvement in Syria after the U.S. is involved. Not only would they stand to gain very little, but the potential for victory is slim to none. The unlikelihood of a victory is the result of two major factors. First, the majority of the international community does not support Assad, and with America taking a firm stance against him, there are very few who would remain undecided and even less who would support Russia and Assad. Secondly, it is evident that the United States military is still far superior to that of the Russians, making it even more unlikely that they would continue to fight for long, if they do at all.

    Secondly, the threat of ISIS, while certainly a factor that could harm the US forces, and the lack of a unified rebel front would not be something that I see as a major impediment to the operation. First, I believe that ISIS is a threat that needs to be dealt with in some way no matter what. Because they are not as underground as many other jihadist groups, they would be easier to combat and it would give the United States more reason to confront this group. Furthermore, just because there are many different "rebel" factions fighting does not mean that the U.S. could not still enlist the help of these different groups. Obviously they would not all be rallied together as this would have already happened if possible, but if they are all willing to go to war in order to stop Assad, I am sure many of them would accept some form of support from the United States.

    Finally, in regards to the Assad regime, I do not think it would be logical to put back into power the same man that this conflict started over. Additionally, allowing Assad to have power after everything he has done, even if punishment was added, would in some way legitimize his crimes simply because after everything he and his regime did, they were given back their power.

    Essentially, I still believe that the U.S. stands to gain more than enough by going to war in Syria. Not only would it help bring stability to a region that the U.S. has great interest in. But it would also provide a much needed ally in the region that could help expand the stability throughout the region in the long run.

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  7. While I do see the value in putting forth a military intervention to stop all the atrocities going on in Syria, I see the UN as a better platform to achieve this. With low popularity in this region, and the multitude of rebels who can go under extremist leadership at any moment, choosing a side to back seems like choosing the best of all the evils. While many are fighting for the right cause, we do not want a repeat of Afghanistan and essentially providing rogue Mujahideen groups with weapons, one that ended up being Al Qaeda. With so many groups fighting, I think a unified approach from many states would serve infinitely better than one country going in.

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    1. Frank, I agree with your platform of the United Nations being the best means by which to stage an intervention. I think that the point you raise actually would fit well in conjunction with my arguments, the only issue being the Russians. If the United States were to bring the platform I have outlined before the UN security council with the hope of a humanitarian intervention being passed, it is very unlikely that it would go through on account of Russia's veto power.

      As a result, a better platform to go through in order to form a coalition to intervene in Syria would Be NATO. This allows the United States to bypass the Russian influence on the matter. Furthermore, if the United States was able to gain the support of NATO, then there are two major benefits. First, it gives more legitimacy to the intervention and the actions of the United States. And secondly, even if the Russians still thought they could stop the United States military, I do not see any way they could rationalize the idea that they could win a war against a NATO coalition.

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